Ivan's Analysis of Hurricane Zeta (2020)

Official Analysis: 110/970

My Analysis: 115/967

In Zeta, we can see potentially the most necessary upgrade for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. At landfall in Louisiana, Zeta was OFFICIALLY 110 mph. However, there are multiple reasons to challenge this.

For a start, there is significant evidence for an intensity upgrade from recon. About 2 hours before landfall, Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into Zeta. They reported flight level winds of 132 mph, which, when 90% of that is taken, we get surface level winds of 118.8 mph. This equates to category three strength, falling

7.8mph above the threshold for such an intensity.

As well as the evidence from recon flights, two ships off the Louisiana coast reported sustained wind winds of 113 mph, also of category three intensity. Many gusts into the 130s were recorded on land, also indicative of an intensity higher than 110 mph.

The pressure of 967 I list is recon confirmed, as during a flight just before landfall, they found an extrapolated surface pressure of 966.8 millibars. To be safe, I rounded it up a little, to 967 millibars. It's possible that Zeta's pressure was even lower than that, even.

Though many say that damage cannot be used to upgrade tropical cyclones, I must cite the very severe damage that occurred during Zeta. In some small towns along the Louisiana shore, such as Cocodrie, houses were actually blown way by the winds. A surge of 11 feet inundated much of the area, too. The winds when shown on film appear to be stronger than category two intensity, so this and all the above evidence makes me believe Zeta peaked as, and made landfall as, a 115 mph category three hurricane with a pressure of 967 millibars or lower.